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First day of the US-Iran ceasefire sees disagreements: Strait of Hormuz traffic control and cryptocurrency fees spark debate, adding to concerns about global energy transportation.

2026-04-13

Strait passage plan: Sharply opposed positions on both sides

 Currently, the Trump administration and Iran's public stances on the Strait of Hormuz are completely irreconcilable.

 Trump announced overnight that the United States "will assist in easing congestion in the Strait of Hormuz... to ensure everything proceeds smoothly." Levitt later added that this indicates the US aims to "provide assistance in every possible way," but did not further clarify whether this means deploying US warships near Iranian military facilities.

 Iran, on the other hand, has only pledged to provide passage for ships under the leadership of the Iranian military.

 A statement issued Tuesday by Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stating that it will provide "safe passage" under its supervision, sounds strikingly similar to the situation during the conflict—Iran has proven its right to decide who can pass and veto the passage of other vessels.

Last Wednesday, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that the reopening was "limited and under Iranian control."

 While traffic has increased in recent days, it remains far below the pre-war average of over 130 ships per day passing through the strait.

 This means the current situation could persist—according to MarineTraffic, "hundreds of ships remain stranded in the region… effectively trapped."

 The energy industry remains cautious.

 Even if the US and Iran resolve their initial differences, many in the shipping industry believe that the recovery of energy transport will be slow and limited.

 Allen Gaard, senior vice president at Wood Mackenzie, wrote last Wednesday that oil-laden ships "have a strong incentive to pass through the Strait of Hormuz as quickly as insurance and security allow, but it is unclear what level of efficiency can be achieved in safe transit." He added that shipping in the Persian Gulf is currently likely in a "just-in-time" logistical state to avoid being "trapped should conflict resume."

 Allianz's chief economic advisor, Mohamed El-Erian, said on social media that shipping companies are more inclined to "move equipment and personnel out of the region rather than send them there."

 This has led many observers of the stock market's dramatic fluctuations to believe that even if a ceasefire is reached, market attention to the situation in Iran will not cease.

 Terry Haynes of Pangea Policy stated that this is "the new normal, whether or not an agreement is reached."